Well, my Dungeons and Dragon’s character, Ollie Oxenfree, was killed over the weekend. A blood golumn got him. We were all very sad.

Anyhow, I got to roll a new character. D&D characters are based on 6 numerical values that are randomly generated by adding together the numbers on three dice. Thus the mimimum score is 3 and the maximum score is 18. There are other ways of getting random numbers between 3 and 18 — for example you could roll a four sided die five times and subtract two. Or you could roll a sixteen sided die and add two. Here is a graph of how likely different rolls are depending on which die/dice you used:

Notice how the more dice you use, the tighter the bell curve appears. You have less than a 1% chance of rolling an 18 (or a 3) and a 12.5% chance of rolling a 10 or 11. For the kind of profession I wanted for my new character (two professions: “Ranger” and “Druid”), I needed at a minimum to roll these scores or higher: 3, 13, 13, 14, 14, 15.

But before I got my hopes up that my character would be able to take on these two professions, I wondered just how likely I was to be able to roll such high scores. I tackled this problem two ways: with a random “monte carlo” simulation, and using statistical analysis.

For the monte carlo simulation, I wrote a perl script that randomly generated scores using a simulated die. It then determined if the rolls met my minimum criteria. After 1000 rolls, it reported the fraction of rolls that were adequate. I had it calculate scores for Ranger+Druid, Ranger only, Druid only, all 3s and all 18s. I know that all 3s or better should be probability of 1 (you always roll a 3 or better). Also, the all 18s should be pretty unlikely (it might not even roll a single one). For those of you following along at home, here is the perl script for this:

@scores = (

[ 3, 13, 13, 14, 14, 15 ],

[ 3, 3, 13, 13, 14, 14 ],

[ 3, 3, 3, 12, 13, 15 ],

[ 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3 ],

[ 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18 ],

[ 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 18 ],

);

foreach $scoresRef (@scores) {

$right = 0;

foreach $i (1..10000) {

my @guess = ();

foreach $b (0..5) {

$guess[$b] = 0;

foreach $a (1..3) {

$guess[$b] += int(1+rand(5.9999999));

}

}

@guess = sort(@guess);

my $itsright = 1;

foreach $b (0..5) {

$z = $guess[$b];

if ($z < $$scoresRef[ $b ]) {

$itsright = 0;

}

}

$right++ if $itsright;

}

$total = 1 - ( 1 - $right / 10000 ) ** 6;

print join(", ", @$scoresRef) . " = $total \n";

}

On Mac OS X, launch Terminal.app, type “perl” and press return. Then copy and paste the code above and press control-D. After a little while it will print out something like this:

3, 13, 13, 14, 14, 15 = 0.0107515164826495 3, 3, 13, 13, 14, 14 = 0.0596604624564983 3, 3, 3, 12, 13, 15 = 0.16341479899658 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3 = 1 18, 18, 18, 18, 18, 18 = 0 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 18 = 0.0214065306042021

Notice the use of the **sort** function to remove any order issues, also the bit about **6 is because we get 6 tries to roll it right. If we had to roll the scores in the correct order it would be a lot lower probability. What I see is that rolling scores high enough for my ideal character happens about 1% of the time. While this seems pretty unlikely, there are a few things going in my favor. First of all, I get 6 tries to roll (increasing my chances by 6 fold). Furthermore, my montycarlo simulation can easily have some error. Finally, its only 1/2 as likely as rolling an 18 — and I know several of my fellow D&D players have characters with 18s, so shooting for my goal seems perfectly reasonable.

I mentioned that there is a second way to calculate how likely I am to roll my needed scores. The first step will be calculating how likely each sum is. Here is some more perl code for doing that:

foreach $a (1..18) { $p1[$a] = 0; $p2[$a] = 0; $p3[$a] = 0; } foreach $a (1..6) { $p1[$a] = 1/6; } foreach $a (2..12) { $p2[$a] = 0; $start = $a-6; if ($start < 1) { $start = 1; } foreach $b ($start..($a-1)) { $p2[$a] += $p1[$b]/6; } } foreach $a (1..18) { print "$a : $p2[$a]\n"; } foreach $a (3..18) { $p3[$a] = 0; $start = $a-6; if ($start < 2) { $start = 2; } foreach $b ($start..($a-1)) { $p3[$a] += $p2[$b]/6; } } $sum = 0; foreach $a (3..18) { print "$a : $p3[$a]\n"; $sum += $p3[$a]; } print "-" x 32; print "\n$sum\n\n";

This will print out something like this:

1 : 0 2 : 0.0277777777777778 3 : 0.0555555555555556 4 : 0.0833333333333333 5 : 0.111111111111111 6 : 0.138888888888889 7 : 0.166666666666667 8 : 0.138888888888889 9 : 0.111111111111111 10 : 0.0833333333333333 11 : 0.0555555555555556 12 : 0.0277777777777778 13 : 0 14 : 0 15 : 0 16 : 0 17 : 0 18 : 0 3 : 0.00462962962962963 4 : 0.0138888888888889 5 : 0.0277777777777778 6 : 0.0462962962962963 7 : 0.0694444444444444 8 : 0.0972222222222222 9 : 0.115740740740741 10 : 0.125 11 : 0.125 12 : 0.115740740740741 13 : 0.0972222222222222 14 : 0.0694444444444444 15 : 0.0462962962962963 16 : 0.0277777777777778 17 : 0.0138888888888889 18 : 0.00462962962962963 -------------------------------- 1

The first 18 values show the probability that a sum of two dice would be the given value. The second 18 show the values for three dice. Thus rolling three dice and getting a sum of 18 has a P=0.0046. Getting a 10 has P=0.125.

The real complication with calculating the scores for my Ranger/Druid using statistics has to do with figuring out the combinations. Essentially, you need to figure out how likely that *one* of the rolls is 15 or better, but it doesn't matter which. After getting bogged down for quite a while puzzling this out, I decided I would simply trust my monte carlo simulation results ðŸ™‚

So I had my dog blow on the dice, and my wife roll them, and sure enough.... I got my scores!

Why am I not surprised at the ultimate outcome here?

BTW, the gray print is hard to read.

So Scott’s okay with this? I know Nikolai got a lot of (too much!) good loot last time around, but I thought Scott still held out hope of bringing Woody into Ravenloft.

When I rolled up Elyara, my scores were close to what yours were, though not quite as high: 10 10 13 13 13 15 (13 13 13 15 were the minimums to qualify for the gypsy class). Her dexterity and charisma have since been augmented, but that was where she started.

How many times did you roll before you got those scores? I seem to recall the rest of us only being allowed to roll up three sets… ðŸ™‚

i supervised the rolling of dice so that no one could give him a hard time about faking numbers. i made him not cheat (although he really wanted to!). those numbers were actually his second set of rolls. (lucy kissed them for luck, so i am sure that’s why they turned out so good) now i must go do something textile related to purge my brain of this d&d stuff!

I am perfectly ok with this, but I will damn well be playing Woody if Nikolai dies, since I have the original ranger/druid. There are actually a LOT of restrictions to this character, so I hope Andy is prepared….

BTW – where is my BLOG?